9.22.2010

USD/JPY Declines Below 85 yen

The U.S. dollar continued to decline in early morning trading Wednesday, buying less than 85 Japanese yen after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it was ready to take further action to boost the economy.



USD - Dollar Falls Broadly on Fed's Comments

The U.S. dollar hit its lowest level in seven weeks against a basket of currencies, following the FOMC statement Tuesday night. Furthermore, the USD dropped below 85.00 yen, which in turn generated speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene to curb yen gains after the BoJ resumed intervention for the first time since 2004 last week.

The dollar fell about 1% against the euro on Tuesday, after the Federal Reserve said it would provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economy. The FOMC also said inflation is currently running below its target and sounded gloomier on its growth outlook, laying the groundwork for quantitative easing. Quantitative easing is considered by many economists as akin to printing money and therefore weakens a country's currency.

Against the Japanese yen the dollar fell to its weakest level since Japan intervened last week, fueling speculation further Japanese intervention in the marketplace. Some market players do not rule out another push by Japanese authorities to try and send the greenback above 86 yen. Many doubt they would let the dollar fall below 84.00. That being said, the prospect of quantitative easing from the Fed does not bode well for a bullish USD/JPY pair.

EUR - Euro Near 6 Week High vs. USD

The euro rose against the greenback on Tuesday, largely due to solid demand at sales of peripheral euro zone debt. At the same time, expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may debate more monetary easing kept investors away from the greenback. Irish, Greek and Spanish government debt auctions attracted decent demand, easing concerns about whether the euro zone's highly indebted countries can obtain the funding they need.

Analysts said that the fact that the auctions were relatively well-received helped the euro develop some bullish momentum and it has broken through resistance at $1.3120.

The euro rose as high as $1.3312 in overnight trading, up 0.4%, after climbing 1.5% on Tuesday. It climbed through its 200-day moving average on Tuesday and chartists have said the next target is its August high of $1.3334.

JPY - Yen Gains After Fed Statement

Japan's Nikkei average slipped 0.5 percent on Wednesday, as the yen edged higher after the Federal Reserve's latest statement on the U.S. economy intensified speculation that it would take more quantitative easing steps later this year. The yen rose above the 85 level vs. the greenback, with market players saying that uncertainty about the likelihood of more intervention was keeping investors sidelined, particularly ahead of a Thursday holiday in Japan.

Despite the gains made against the dollar, the yen continues to fall against the euro. The EUR/JPY pair has shot up some 85 pips since yesterday afternoon. Following the news of euro-zone debt, it appears that investors are willing to bet on the European currency vs. the safe haven yen.

Crude Oil - Oil Weakens before Inventories Report

Crude oil prices fell for the 5th time in six days on Tuesday, amid high oil inventories and the Federal Reserve's continued concern about the sluggish economic recovery. Oil prices failed to garner any support from a weak dollar, which can lift dollar-denominated crude oil prices because it makes the commodity less expensive in countries using currencies other than the greenback.

An analyst survey ahead of the API report had yielded a forecast for crude inventories to be down 1.9 million barrels last week because of lower imports from Canada. This is largely due to the Enbridge pipeline outage and the stormy weather that hindered oil tankers navigation. Oil traders are now waiting for the first glimpse of the prior week's crude inventories. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its oil inventory data on Wednesday at 14:30 GMT. An increase in inventories is expected, which if true, would likely pull prices further down.

Technical News

EUR/USD

Virtually all technical indicators are showing this pair in overbought territory. The Williams Percent Range on the 8-hour chart is currently at the -5 level. Typically anything above the -20 level is a sign that the pair could experience downward pressure. The Stochastic Slow on the daily chart has formed a bearish cross, meaning a correction could take place in the near future. Traders are advised to go short with tight stops today.

GBP/USD

Most technical indicators are showing this pair in overbought territory, meaning the possibility of a downward correction is likely. The Williams Percent Range on the 4-hour chart is currently at -10, while the Relative Strength Index is approaching the upper resistance line. Traders may want to go short in their positions today.

USD/JPY

Technical indicators are currently mixed for this pair. While the Stochastic Slow on the daily chart shows that a bearish cross has formed, the Williams Percent Range on the 8-hour chart shows the pair in the oversold region, meaning an upward correction could occur. Traders are advised to take a wait and see approach for this pair today.

USD/CHF

Most technical indicators are showing this pair in the oversold region. The Williams Percent Range on the daily chart is at the -90 level, meaning upward pressure is likely. The Stochastic Slow on the 8-hour chart is showing a bullish cross forming right now. Traders are advised to go long with tight stops today, as an upward correction may occur.

Silver

Technical indicators on the daily chart including the Stochastic Slow and Relative Strength Index show that silver is currently in overbought territory. The Williams Percent Range on the 8-hour chart confirms this theory. Forex traders may want to go short with tight stops today, as a downward correction is likely to occur.

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What is Forex?

If you would go out on a dinner with your friends or family and you mentioned that you were trading on the Forex market most of them wouldn’t know what you were talking about. The worst thing is that most of the Forex traders that join the Forex market don’t know what they are doing. Understanding what Forex is, is the first good step to your success at Forex trading.


The foreign exchange market (Currency, Forex, or FX) is where currency trading takes place. It is where banks and other official institutions facilitate the buying and selling of foreign currencies. Forex transactions typically involve one party purchasing a quantity of one currency in exchange for paying a quantity of another. The foreign exchange market that we see today started evolving during the 1970s when world over countries gradually switched to floating exchange rate from their erstwhile exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system till 1971.

Today, the Forex market is one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world, and includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, corporations, governments, and other institutions. The average daily volume in the global foreign exchange and related markets is continuously growing. Traditional daily turnover was reported to be over US$3.2 trillion in April 2007 by the Bank for International Settlements. Since then, the market has continued to grow. According to Euromoney's annual Forex Poll, volumes grew a further 41% between 2007 and 2008.

Forex Turnover

Forex Turnover
Main foreign exchange market turnover, 1988 - 2007, measured in billions of USD.
The purpose of Forex market is to facilitate trade and investment. The need for a foreign exchange market arises because of the presence of multifarious international currencies such as US Dollar, Pound Sterling, Yen, etc., and the need for trading in such currencies. Since you aren’t buying anything physical this kind of trading can be confusing. When buying a currency think of it as buying a part in that particular country’s economy because the currency rate reflects the economical situation of the country when compared to others.

Currencies

Currencies
List of most popular currencies on the Forex market

Forex used to be a closed market because only the “big boys” because you needed between 10 and 50 million $ to open an account. But today, with the development of internet, online Forex brokers have the possibility to offer their services to “little” traders. All you need to start is a computer, fast internet connection and information which you can find on this page also.

This enormous market is like the dangerous sea where you can meet lots of sharks and dangerous waters but at the same time it is the only one where two weeks of trading can hypothetically bring you $1,000,000 out of $1,000 of initial investment.

This is certainly hypothetically because a lot of newbie traders deal with their trades as gambling, that surely bring them to having nothing in the end. You should always keep the phrase "be careful!" in your mind. This market would give you its profit possibilities only if you learn the basic things hard and make lots of demo trading.

The statistics is that as much as 95% of traders come to losing their money at Forex, 5% have profit and less than 1% of traders make large fortune at Forex. You shouldn't produce, sell or advertise anything trading at Forex. Your assets are your knowledge, experience and a small amount of cash.

This market is a platform for banks, transnational corporations and individual traders to change the currencies they possess into other ones. This is the spot Forex market. At this market you can trade with up to 1:400 leverage which means that you'll get $400 on your account for each dollar invested. So, you can trade with the $400,000 sum having invested $1,000 onto your account.

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Good luck to everyone!