9.10.2009

British Pound Takes Center Stage as Bank of England Announces Interest Rates (Euro Open)

The British Pound is in European trading hours as currency markets turn their attention to the interest rate decision from the Bank of England. An actual change in borrowing costs is unlikely, with traders paying keen interest to anything that hints at the future course of the bank’s quantitative easing program.

Key Overnight Developments

• Japanese Corporate Goods Prices Disappoint, Signal Continued Deflation
• Australian Jobs Report Disappoints, Weighs on RBA Rate Hike Expectations

Critical Levels



The Euro moved slightly higher in overnight trading, adding 0.1% against the US Dollar. The British Pound followed suit, testing as high as 1.6563 against the greenback.

Asia Session Highlights



Japan’s Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index printed flat in August, showing producer prices continued to shrink at a record annualized rate of -8.5%. Economists had expected prices to grow 0.2% from the previous month to bring the year-on-year figure up to -8.4%. Prices of imported goods led the way lower, down -34.6% from a year before, with raw materials (particularly petroleum and coal) registering the largest losses at -0.8% on the month and -44.1% in annual terms. The outcome foreshadows continued downward pressure on consumer prices, which shrank for the sixth consecutive month in July, hinting that deflation is set to become entrenched once again in the world’s second-largest economy. This is a dire prospect: if consumers and businesses expect prices to be lower in the future, they will perpetually delay spending and investment waiting for the best possible bargain, bringing economic growth to a virtual standstill. At this point, a rebound in exports seems like the only saving grace for the economy, which looks like a distant prospect for the moment considering recent Current Account data but may be helped if the policies of the incoming DPJ government result in a weaker Japanese Yen.

Australia’s labor market data proved disappointing: although the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5.8%, the economy shed 27,100 jobs in August, much more than economists expected. Worse still, the drop was driven by a -30.8k decline in full-time positions, marking the fourth consecutive month of large double-digit losses. More of the same is likely going forward: a survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg forecasts the jobless rate will rise to average 6.25% this year and 7.9% in 2010. Job losses will weigh on incomes and trim consumption, threatening Australia’s nascent economic rebound. Data released just yesterday revealed that retail sales unexpectedly fell in July as the impact of the government’s A$20 in cash handouts began to fade while higher borrowing costs undermined lending. Indeed, the past two days have amounted to a profound wake-up call for financial markets: traders that had been pricing in a 45% chance that the RBA will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in October just three days ago now see just a 16% chance of such an outcome.

Euro Session: What to Expect



Currency markets will be focused on the interest rate decision from the Bank of England in European trading hours, with Mervyn King and company all but sure to keep benchmark borrowing costs unchanged at 0.5%. The release’s market-moving potential hinges entirely on the statement accompanying the announcement, with traders paying keen interest to anything that hints at the future course of the bank’s quantitative easing program. Last month’s release proved pivotal as the BOE took an unexpected turn into dovish territory, expanding their asset-buying scheme by 50 billion pounds: indexes measuring traders' 1-year BOE rate hike expectations and the average value of the British Pound against a trade-weighted basket of top currencies both topped out on the very same day. On balance, it seems unlikely that policymakers would make significant changes now, preferring to first see what happens after last month’s actions have been allowed to work through the economy. However, it is important to note that the BOE had largely failed to affect lending to the real economy having spent 125 billion on quantitative easing prior to the most recent expansion. It seems unlikely that pouring another 50 billion into the program will make much of a difference, leading us to speculate that perhaps the bank’s actions had been intended to establish expectations of a dovish bias, cushioning the impact of a more dramatic change to current policy.

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
Article Source - British Pound Takes Center Stage as Bank of England Announces Interest Rates (Euro Open)
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What is Forex?

If you would go out on a dinner with your friends or family and you mentioned that you were trading on the Forex market most of them wouldn’t know what you were talking about. The worst thing is that most of the Forex traders that join the Forex market don’t know what they are doing. Understanding what Forex is, is the first good step to your success at Forex trading.


The foreign exchange market (Currency, Forex, or FX) is where currency trading takes place. It is where banks and other official institutions facilitate the buying and selling of foreign currencies. Forex transactions typically involve one party purchasing a quantity of one currency in exchange for paying a quantity of another. The foreign exchange market that we see today started evolving during the 1970s when world over countries gradually switched to floating exchange rate from their erstwhile exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system till 1971.

Today, the Forex market is one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world, and includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, corporations, governments, and other institutions. The average daily volume in the global foreign exchange and related markets is continuously growing. Traditional daily turnover was reported to be over US$3.2 trillion in April 2007 by the Bank for International Settlements. Since then, the market has continued to grow. According to Euromoney's annual Forex Poll, volumes grew a further 41% between 2007 and 2008.

Forex Turnover

Forex Turnover
Main foreign exchange market turnover, 1988 - 2007, measured in billions of USD.
The purpose of Forex market is to facilitate trade and investment. The need for a foreign exchange market arises because of the presence of multifarious international currencies such as US Dollar, Pound Sterling, Yen, etc., and the need for trading in such currencies. Since you aren’t buying anything physical this kind of trading can be confusing. When buying a currency think of it as buying a part in that particular country’s economy because the currency rate reflects the economical situation of the country when compared to others.

Currencies

Currencies
List of most popular currencies on the Forex market

Forex used to be a closed market because only the “big boys” because you needed between 10 and 50 million $ to open an account. But today, with the development of internet, online Forex brokers have the possibility to offer their services to “little” traders. All you need to start is a computer, fast internet connection and information which you can find on this page also.

This enormous market is like the dangerous sea where you can meet lots of sharks and dangerous waters but at the same time it is the only one where two weeks of trading can hypothetically bring you $1,000,000 out of $1,000 of initial investment.

This is certainly hypothetically because a lot of newbie traders deal with their trades as gambling, that surely bring them to having nothing in the end. You should always keep the phrase "be careful!" in your mind. This market would give you its profit possibilities only if you learn the basic things hard and make lots of demo trading.

The statistics is that as much as 95% of traders come to losing their money at Forex, 5% have profit and less than 1% of traders make large fortune at Forex. You shouldn't produce, sell or advertise anything trading at Forex. Your assets are your knowledge, experience and a small amount of cash.

This market is a platform for banks, transnational corporations and individual traders to change the currencies they possess into other ones. This is the spot Forex market. At this market you can trade with up to 1:400 leverage which means that you'll get $400 on your account for each dollar invested. So, you can trade with the $400,000 sum having invested $1,000 onto your account.

Forex is unique among other world markets because in any time of day and night, somewhere in the world, a financial centre is open for business, banks and corporations exchange currency all the time, with a little lower frequency during the weekend.

Why to trade on Forex?

1. There is no commission fee for trading at Forex.
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4. Nobody can influence the market for a longer period.
5. High liquidity.
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Hope this has answered a lot of questions you were asking yourself about Forex and that you can now start trading. Also make sure that you check out other articles on this blog which can help you earn your fortune.

Good luck to everyone!