Monthly Forecasts for US Dollar - August

Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

Euro/US Dollar interest rate forecasts have become somewhat bearish, but recent FX market price action suggests the EURUSD will continue to trade off of risk sentiment in broader financial markets. Indeed, the historically strong correlation between interest rates and FX market price action faded quickly through the onset of the global financial crisis. Overnight Index Swaps predict that Euro and US Dollar interest rates will be roughly equal in 12 months’ time.

Such forecasts should be bearish for the Euro, which currently enjoys a 100 basis point yield advantage over its US counterpart. Yet we believe that these developments may have little impact on the Euro/US Dollar exchange rate. It will be far more important to monitor trends in the US S&P 500 and other key global risk sentiment indicators.

Euro / US Dollar Valuation Forecast

The Euro has pushed deeper into overvalued territory and is now 3135 pips above is “fair”, PPP-implied exchange rate as risky assets continued to advance, weighing on the safety-linked US Dollar. From a fundamental stand-point, the foundation behind Euro strength seems shaky: the IMF is forecasting that the Euro Zone will stand apart from other industrial economies in seeing GDP continue to shrink through 2010, which likely means the Fed will lead the ECB in starting to raise interest rates once economic recovery begins in earnest. In fact, a look at overnight index swaps (see above) seems to be pricing in just that. Further, deflation is beginning to set in while the banking sector is yet to come to terms with an estimated $1.1 trillion in unrealized sub-prime related losses (again courtesy of the IMF), a hit that could be compounded by losses from default or devaluation in some of the newly-minted central European EU member states. That said, the sharp rally in equity markets that has punished the Dollar since March continues to make new highs despite increasing chatter about the move being over-extended, so timing a reversal is a decidedly difficult endeavor. On balance, the bias remains bearish with further EURUSD gains to be taken as a welcome opportunity to exploit a larger disparity in valuation once the downturn does begin to materialize.

US Dollar Japanese Yen Exchange Rate Forecast

Interest rate traders forecast that the US Dollar yield advantage over the Japanese Yen will pick up significantly in the coming 12 months, but recently apathetic FX speculators have shown little interest in interest rate developments. The US Dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate has instead moved off of shifts in global financial risk sentiment—especially as seen through key risk barometers such as the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 indices. We predict this will continue to be the case through the foreseeable future.

Indeed, Overnight Index Swap differentials have supported a USDJPY rally since the pair traded near the 105 mark. Suffice it to say, such interest rate-based forecasts were far from accurate. It remains far more important to monitor general financial market risk sentiment.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen Valuation Forecast

The bottom line for the Japanese Yen is broadly unchanged for the fifth consecutive month with the currency still effectively at its “fair” value against the US Dollar. As before, both the yield outlook and comparative economic growth expectations are biased in favor of the greenback. Indeed, median estimates from a survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg suggest that US GDP growth will outpace that of Japan by an average of 2.4% through the end of 2010. The pair’s correlation to risk trends seems to have declined sharply recently, but these relationships can vary in prominence over time and there is certainly a possibility that any return to risk aversion would prompt carry trade liquidation and send the Yen higher across the board, weighing on USDJPY by association. On balance, current positioning does not offer an attractive mispricing to be exploited from a valuation standpoint; it seems prudent to remain flat for the time being until a cleaner disparity presents itself.

British Pound US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

The British Pound/US Dollar currency pair has shown relatively little sensitivity to interest rate developments through recent trading. FX markets have sent the GBPUSD to fresh peaks despite the fact that Overnight Index Swaps show little change in yield forecasts, and there is little reason to believe that markets will subsequently grow more sensitive to GBP/USD rate differentials.

It has been far more significant to monitor financial market sentiment as seen through the S&P 500 and other key risk barometers. The rolling medium-term correlation between the GBPUSD and the S&P remains near record highs, and we have many reasons to believe that this will continue to be the case through the foreseeable future.

British Pound / US Dollar Valuation Forecast

As with the Euro, the gap between British Pound spot and PPP-implied exchange rates has widened over recent months, catalyzed by the market’s seemingly insatiable appetite for risky assets. Indeed, the sterling’s relative superiority in value and yield has seen it outperforming other major European currencies against in the greenback. However, this also means that the UK unit is more vulnerable to a reversal of a current rally, an outcome that seems reasonable considering global shares look decidedly overvalued having finished July trading at the highest level relative to earnings since October 2003. After adjusting for inflation, the pace of global GDP growth registered at 2.7% that year having been accelerating since 2001, implying earnings that all but certainly expanded at a healthier rate than anything we are going to see this year. It seems only a matter of time before the stock markets experience a rude awakening and begin correcting sharply lower, dragging the Pound along for the ride. In the meantime, continued gains may be considered in the context of creating a more pronounced overvaluation, presenting an increasingly more attractive selling opportunity ahead.

US Dollar Swiss Franc Exchange Rate Forecast

Negligible US Dollar/Swiss Franc interest rate differentials have meant that the USDCHF remains largely removed from shifts in rate forecasts. Interest rate traders anticipate that the US Dollar will yield over 100 basis points more than the Swiss Franc in 12 months’ time—normally a positive sign for a given currency. Yet the USDCHF trades near important lows, and FX traders have shown little concern over yield developments. It may be far more significant to monitor another important fundamental theme: central bank intervention.

The Swiss National Bank has defended the important SFr 1.5000 mark on several different occasions, and open-market intervention may continue to sway the USDCHF as well. It remains critical to monitor SNB rhetoric and actions.

Swiss Franc / US Dollar Valuation Forecast

On balance, the outlook for the Swiss Franc is much the same as it was last month: the currency’s substantial overvaluation against the US Dollar bolsters other catalysts that are expected to eventually work in the greenback’s favor, most notably the SNB’s commitment to keep a lid on the currency’s appreciation as a bulwark against the onset of deflation. Switzerland’s dependency on external demand (particularly from the EU) as a key driver of economic growth is also of note, suggesting a recovery for the mountain nation is contingent on a return to growth in other countries and all but assuring that interest rates will be slower to rise there than in the States. The recent selloff in the Dollar has widened the disparity between spot and the PPP-implied exchange rate, offering bulls an increasingly attractive entry point once growth and yield considerations re-capture traders’ attention.

US Dollar Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

The US Dollar/Canadian Dollar exchange rate has shown very little correlation to interest rate forecasts, and we have little reason to believe that said dynamic will change through the foreseeable future. Overnight index swaps currently predict that Bank of Canada and US Federal Reserve interest rates will be roughly equal in a year’s time. Barring any significant and/or unexpected shift, said predictions leave little interest rate bias for the USDCAD.

The exchange rate remains closely linked to global commodity prices, and the USDCAD-Crude Oil correlation trades near record-highs. It will subsequently be very important to monitor trends in raw materials prices, and their recent uptrend bodes well for the Canadian Dollar.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar Valuation Forecast

The Canadian Dollar has outperformed the spectrum of major currencies in July as risky assets continued to push higher, with the currency able to find a catalyst beyond overall US Dollar weakness in the rebounding price of oil. Indeed, USDCAD now shows a whopping -89.9% inverted correlation with Nymex crude. As with most of the majors, however, the operative question going forward concerns the longevity of the current bout of risk-taking. An increasing number of observers are suggesting that oil is becoming decoupled from underlying fundamentals of demand, with recent buying driven by the desire for a tangible asset hedge against future inflation born of the aggressive monetary easing that has been put in place to check the onset of what looked like the next Great Depression. However, the IMF has forecast that consumer price growth will average less that 3% for the world at large and a mere 0.5% for advanced economies through 2010, figures that seems hardly indicative of a catastrophic spike in inflationary pressure. Indeed, infamous New York University professor Nouriel Roubini that has earned the nickname “Dr. Doom” for predicting the 2008 credit crisis and recession recently said that deflation, not inflation, is the biggest threat to a sustained rebound and chalked recent oil gains as being driven primarily by “speculation”. If this is indeed the case, the Canadian Dollar could tumble as quickly as it rallied when the underlying fundamentals of the global economy replace current euphoria as the catalyst for price action, offering USDCAD bulls a lucrative value gap to be exploited.

Australian Dollar US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

The Australian Dollar/US Dollar exchange rate is one of the few that remains sensitive to interest rate developments, and currently bullish forecasts for AUD yields points to further rallies for the AUDUSD. It is undeniable that high Reserve Bank of Australia interest rates bolstered demand for the domestic currency through recent years. Through the recent financial crisis, traders aggressively shed exposure to the Aussie as the forex carry trade collapsed. The more recent rally in global equity indices has clearly reversed said trend, and the Australian Dollar now trades at its highest levels since the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. Absent a noteworthy correction in global risk sentiment, we expect the AUDUSD to continue trading off of bullish interest rate forecasts.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar Valuation Forecast

The Australian Dollar continued to advance last month as risk-seeking investors flocked to the high-yielding currency. As has been the case since March, the single indicator to be followed here remains the pace of the global stock rally. Indeed, AUDUSD is now shows a staggering 97.7% correlation with the MSCI World Stock Index. On balance, equity valuations look increasingly overdone having finished July at the highest level relative to earnings since October 2003 in a year when the global economy is expected to shrink for the first time in the Postwar era, suggesting an eventual correction lower will bring the Australian Dollar closer to its PPP-implied exchange rate. In fact, the higher the current push extends, the sharper the eventual downturn is likely to be. In the meantime, further gains may be seen as creating an increasingly attractive selling opportunity down the road.

New Zealand Dollar US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

The New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar currency pair likewise remains sensitive to interest rate differentials, and bearish forecasts for yields could have a negative effect on the NZDUSD. The New Zealand dollar currently enjoys a sizeable 225 basis point yield advantage over its US namesake, but interest rate traders anticipate that said spread will contract by 13 percent in a year’s time. We believe that interest rate-seeking speculators have bid the New Zealand dollar higher against the extremely low-yielding US Dollar. Any sign that the NZDUSD will no longer offer an impressive carry trade return could sink the Kiwi versus the US dollar. We have already seen the New Zealand dollar slip against its higher-yielding Australian counterpart.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar Valuation Forecast

In a similar fashion to its Australian counterpart, the New Zealand Dollar has captured outsized gains at the expense of the greenback, driven higher by a hefty 95.7% correlation with surging global equities (as measured by the MSCI World Stock Index). Meanwhile, the fundamentals of the economy are decidedly grim. Indeed, Fitch downgraded New Zealand’s long-term credit outlook, expressing concern over the country’s medium-term growth outlook given its “persistently large current account deficit and rising foreign indebtedness”. The ratings powerhouse added that the volatility of the New Zealand Dollar complicates the necessary adjustments to the economy, with the currency “more responsive to global financial conditions than to domestic economic fundamentals.” Although a host of officials from the head of the central bank to the prime minister have tried talking down the currency, we have argued that a rate cut is the next logical step to create lower yield expectations and thereby help to decouple NZD from trends in risky assets. It remains to be seen whether this or an actual reversal in risk sentiment will prove to be the Kiwi dollar’s undoing, but a bearish bias with an eye to (eventually) exploit the currency’s growing overvaluation seems warranted regardless.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist; David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist; Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
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What is Forex?

If you would go out on a dinner with your friends or family and you mentioned that you were trading on the Forex market most of them wouldn’t know what you were talking about. The worst thing is that most of the Forex traders that join the Forex market don’t know what they are doing. Understanding what Forex is, is the first good step to your success at Forex trading.

The foreign exchange market (Currency, Forex, or FX) is where currency trading takes place. It is where banks and other official institutions facilitate the buying and selling of foreign currencies. Forex transactions typically involve one party purchasing a quantity of one currency in exchange for paying a quantity of another. The foreign exchange market that we see today started evolving during the 1970s when world over countries gradually switched to floating exchange rate from their erstwhile exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system till 1971.

Today, the Forex market is one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world, and includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, corporations, governments, and other institutions. The average daily volume in the global foreign exchange and related markets is continuously growing. Traditional daily turnover was reported to be over US$3.2 trillion in April 2007 by the Bank for International Settlements. Since then, the market has continued to grow. According to Euromoney's annual Forex Poll, volumes grew a further 41% between 2007 and 2008.

Forex Turnover

Forex Turnover
Main foreign exchange market turnover, 1988 - 2007, measured in billions of USD.
The purpose of Forex market is to facilitate trade and investment. The need for a foreign exchange market arises because of the presence of multifarious international currencies such as US Dollar, Pound Sterling, Yen, etc., and the need for trading in such currencies. Since you aren’t buying anything physical this kind of trading can be confusing. When buying a currency think of it as buying a part in that particular country’s economy because the currency rate reflects the economical situation of the country when compared to others.


List of most popular currencies on the Forex market

Forex used to be a closed market because only the “big boys” because you needed between 10 and 50 million $ to open an account. But today, with the development of internet, online Forex brokers have the possibility to offer their services to “little” traders. All you need to start is a computer, fast internet connection and information which you can find on this page also.

This enormous market is like the dangerous sea where you can meet lots of sharks and dangerous waters but at the same time it is the only one where two weeks of trading can hypothetically bring you $1,000,000 out of $1,000 of initial investment.

This is certainly hypothetically because a lot of newbie traders deal with their trades as gambling, that surely bring them to having nothing in the end. You should always keep the phrase "be careful!" in your mind. This market would give you its profit possibilities only if you learn the basic things hard and make lots of demo trading.

The statistics is that as much as 95% of traders come to losing their money at Forex, 5% have profit and less than 1% of traders make large fortune at Forex. You shouldn't produce, sell or advertise anything trading at Forex. Your assets are your knowledge, experience and a small amount of cash.

This market is a platform for banks, transnational corporations and individual traders to change the currencies they possess into other ones. This is the spot Forex market. At this market you can trade with up to 1:400 leverage which means that you'll get $400 on your account for each dollar invested. So, you can trade with the $400,000 sum having invested $1,000 onto your account.

Forex is unique among other world markets because in any time of day and night, somewhere in the world, a financial centre is open for business, banks and corporations exchange currency all the time, with a little lower frequency during the weekend.

Why to trade on Forex?

1. There is no commission fee for trading at Forex.
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Hope this has answered a lot of questions you were asking yourself about Forex and that you can now start trading. Also make sure that you check out other articles on this blog which can help you earn your fortune.

Good luck to everyone!