8.07.2009

Currency Markets to Look Past European Data, Focus on US Jobs Report (Euro Open)

Currency markets are likely to look past the releases of Swiss unemployment, German industrial production and trade figures, and UK PPI to focus on the upcoming US Non Farm Payrolls report due late into European hours. Australian news was mixed in the overnight session as the RBA talked up rate hike possibilities while the construction sector shrank the most since April.

Key Overnight Developments

• Australia’s Construction Sector Shrinks Most Since April
• RBA Hints at Rate Hikes But Traders Not Convinced
• Euro, Pound Little Changed in Overnight Trading

Critical Levels



The Euro failed to retain momentum on an attempted rebound in Asian trading after the selloff in New York hours, testing as high as 1.4373 but reversing course mid-way through the session to trade little changed ahead of the opening bell in Europe. The British Pound traded sideways in a narrow 60-pip range above US-session lows near 1.6750.

Asia Session Highlights



Australia’s AiG Performance of Construction Index fell for the second consecutive month to register at 39.5 in July, showing the building industry contracted at the fastest pace since April. The metric was led lower by drops in sector-wide employment, apartment construction, and engineering demand. The government introduced A$34 billion in fiscal stimulus this year, distributing A$12 billion as cash handouts to households and setting aside A$22 billion for infrastructure projects. We noted signs that the consumer-focused portion of the plan was losing steam earlier this week, and today’s report may be the first clue to confirming that the building component is heading in the same direction. Indeed, it is hard to imagine that any infrastructure project can meaningfully get off the ground without engineers to design it and new builders to execute it.

Euro Session: What to Expect



Switzerland’s seasonally adjusted Unemployment Rate is set to rise to 3.9% in July, the highest in close to five years, pointing to mounting headwinds for consumer spending and thereby overall economic growth. In fact, the jobless rate may actually be understating the total impact of the current downturn on consumers’ spending power as many firms looked to cut costs by switching a portion of the workforce to a “short-time” schedule, which amounts to fewer hours and thereby smaller paychecks. Naturally, this trims disposable incomes and adds to already formidable disincentives to consume. Although exports are heavily represented as a component of Swiss economic growth, domestic demand is still by far the most important driver of activity, contributing about 60% to total output. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) has forecast that the jobless rate will register at 3.8% through 2009, an expectation that has been echoed in a survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg. Job losses have grown at an average pace of 3.35% in the six months through June and so would be expected to rise by an average of 4.25% in the second half of the year.

Germany’s Current Account surplus is expected to print at 8 billion euro in June from 3.7 billion in the previous month as exports grow 0.9%, outpacing a 0.7% increase in imports. Although this would mark a bit of an improvement on a monthly basis, the outcome still falls firmly within the downward trajectory that has been in place since the surplus peaked in the third quarter of 2007. Indeed, economists polled by Bloomberg predict that net exports will contribute an average of 3.72% to overall economic growth this year and in 2010, the smallest in 6 years. While Germany’s current account has been eroding for the better part of the past two years, its US counterpart has been narrowing. Indeed, the US external deficit peaked in the three months to September 2006 and has narrowed by a whopping $113.3 billion to date. Germany has a deep trade relationship with the US, so a continuation of this trajectory implies long-term downward pressure on EURUSD as capital outflows overwhelm inflows into the Euro Zone’s largest economy and top exporter.

Separately, the annual pace of decline in German Industrial Production is expected to moderate for the third consecutive month, with output shrinking -17.5%. As with similar improvements noted in recent months across developed countries, the reading is unlikely to prove particularly market-moving considering traders have likely already priced in the stabilizing effects of the ample global fiscal boost and inventory restocking into the exchange rate. Indeed, the question to be answered from here is what will happen after the flow of government cash dries up and the inventory cycle runs its course.

Finally, the UK Producer Price Index report is expected to show that wholesale inflation shrank at an annual pace of -1.7% in June, the largest drop on since records began in 1979. The metric points to continued downward pressure on consumer prices, the headline inflation gauge, as lower wholesale costs filter into the final price tag. Indeed, the Bank of England said that while “some recovery in output growth is in prospect,” aggregate supply is likely to continue to outstrip demand “for some while yet, bearing down on inflation in the medium term.” CPI fell below the 2% target level for the first time in 2 years in June and is expected to average at 1.15% for the remainder of the year.

On balance, the European data docket is likely to prove secondary as currency markets focus their attention on the upcoming Non Farm Payrolls report out of United States to be released late into the session.

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
Article Source - Currency Markets to Look Past European Data, Focus on US Jobs Report (Euro Open)
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What is Forex?

If you would go out on a dinner with your friends or family and you mentioned that you were trading on the Forex market most of them wouldn’t know what you were talking about. The worst thing is that most of the Forex traders that join the Forex market don’t know what they are doing. Understanding what Forex is, is the first good step to your success at Forex trading.


The foreign exchange market (Currency, Forex, or FX) is where currency trading takes place. It is where banks and other official institutions facilitate the buying and selling of foreign currencies. Forex transactions typically involve one party purchasing a quantity of one currency in exchange for paying a quantity of another. The foreign exchange market that we see today started evolving during the 1970s when world over countries gradually switched to floating exchange rate from their erstwhile exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system till 1971.

Today, the Forex market is one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world, and includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, corporations, governments, and other institutions. The average daily volume in the global foreign exchange and related markets is continuously growing. Traditional daily turnover was reported to be over US$3.2 trillion in April 2007 by the Bank for International Settlements. Since then, the market has continued to grow. According to Euromoney's annual Forex Poll, volumes grew a further 41% between 2007 and 2008.

Forex Turnover

Forex Turnover
Main foreign exchange market turnover, 1988 - 2007, measured in billions of USD.
The purpose of Forex market is to facilitate trade and investment. The need for a foreign exchange market arises because of the presence of multifarious international currencies such as US Dollar, Pound Sterling, Yen, etc., and the need for trading in such currencies. Since you aren’t buying anything physical this kind of trading can be confusing. When buying a currency think of it as buying a part in that particular country’s economy because the currency rate reflects the economical situation of the country when compared to others.

Currencies

Currencies
List of most popular currencies on the Forex market

Forex used to be a closed market because only the “big boys” because you needed between 10 and 50 million $ to open an account. But today, with the development of internet, online Forex brokers have the possibility to offer their services to “little” traders. All you need to start is a computer, fast internet connection and information which you can find on this page also.

This enormous market is like the dangerous sea where you can meet lots of sharks and dangerous waters but at the same time it is the only one where two weeks of trading can hypothetically bring you $1,000,000 out of $1,000 of initial investment.

This is certainly hypothetically because a lot of newbie traders deal with their trades as gambling, that surely bring them to having nothing in the end. You should always keep the phrase "be careful!" in your mind. This market would give you its profit possibilities only if you learn the basic things hard and make lots of demo trading.

The statistics is that as much as 95% of traders come to losing their money at Forex, 5% have profit and less than 1% of traders make large fortune at Forex. You shouldn't produce, sell or advertise anything trading at Forex. Your assets are your knowledge, experience and a small amount of cash.

This market is a platform for banks, transnational corporations and individual traders to change the currencies they possess into other ones. This is the spot Forex market. At this market you can trade with up to 1:400 leverage which means that you'll get $400 on your account for each dollar invested. So, you can trade with the $400,000 sum having invested $1,000 onto your account.

Forex is unique among other world markets because in any time of day and night, somewhere in the world, a financial centre is open for business, banks and corporations exchange currency all the time, with a little lower frequency during the weekend.

Why to trade on Forex?

1. There is no commission fee for trading at Forex.
2. There is no intermediary, you can trade directly at Forex.
3. Forex is open 24-hours a day.
4. Nobody can influence the market for a longer period.
5. High liquidity.
6. Free demo accounts, analysis and charts.
7. Small accounts that allow everyone to try out his luck.

Hope this has answered a lot of questions you were asking yourself about Forex and that you can now start trading. Also make sure that you check out other articles on this blog which can help you earn your fortune.

Good luck to everyone!