US Dollar Supported as Stocks Surge with Treasury Sales to Boost Yields (Euro Open)

The US Dollar remained supported despite a sharp rally across Asian stock exchanges, diverging from risk trends on news the Treasury will sell a record $115 billion in bonds next week, boosting interest rate expectations and driving yield-seeking interest in the greenback. Germany’s IFO Survey and UK Gross Domestic Product data headline the calendar in European hours.

Key Overnight Developments

• US Dollar Supported as Stocks Surge with Treasury Sales to Boost Yields
• Euro, British Pound Consolidate at Familiar Levels in Overnight Trading

Critical Levels

The Euro traded sideways in Asian hours, oscillating in a narrow 30-pip range below 1.4170. The British Pound tried higher to test above 1.65 but prices retreated late into the session, yielding an effectively flat result ahead of the opening bell in Europe.

Asia Session Highlights

With no major market-moving data on the economic calendar, forex market consolidated near familiar levels in overnight trading hours. Interestingly, prices seemed to look past a sharp rally on Asian stock exchanges, a dynamic that over recent months has meant losses for the safety-linked US Dollar. A similar divergence was on display in New York hours, with the currencies shying away from breaking key levels even as risk appetite continued swell. The greenback may be seeing support as traders react to the US Treasury’s announcement that they will sell a record $115 billion in bonds next week. Treasuries declined as the news crossed the wires, with 10-year notes posting the largest daily loss in nearly seven weeks, sending yields to the highest level in a month. We have argued for some time that the US Dollar will benefit as the government issues debt to finance the rapidly growing public deficit: Treasury prices will head sharply lower as the market is flooded with new supply, putting tremendous upward pressure on the long-term interest rates. This will make USD-denominated assets attractive to yield-seeking investors, driving demand for the greenback.

Euro Session: What to Expect

Germany’s IFO Survey of business sentiment is expected to rise for the seventh consecutive month in July, pointing to continued improvement in firms’ 6-month economic outlook. Still, the reading is expected at 90.1, a print below the 100 “boom-bust” threshold, suggesting conditions are still deteriorating but at a slower pace. The Euro Zone Purchasing Manager Index is set follow a similar a similar trajectory, printing at 43.5 in July to show that the manufacturing sector shrank for the 14th consecutive month, albeit at the slowest rate since the metric hit a record low in February. Some recovery is to be expected as an array of fiscal packages from governments across the currency bloc filter into the broad economy, but the big question in the Euro area as well as most anywhere at this stage is whether growth is sustainable after stimulus cash dries up. As it stands, the latest economic forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reveals that the Euro Zone will stand apart from other industrialized economies in seeing economic growth continue to contract in 2010, pointing to a comparatively slower return to higher interest rates that will keep the Euro on the defensive against most major currencies.

In the UK, Gross Domestic Product is set to shrink -0.3% in the second quarter, a far smaller decline than the -2.4% lost in the three months through March and the smallest drop in a year. London-based think tank NIESR has forecast the moderation, saying “the U.K. economy is now stagnating rather than continuing to contract at a sharp pace.” Minutes from the last meeting of the Bank of England echoed the optimistic outlook, with policymakers saying risks to GDP have probably diminished and speculating that the economy may shrink less than was previously expected. Not everyone is as sanguine, however: the British Chamber of Commerce urged the BOE to add 25 billion pounds to their asset-buying scheme, saying a recovery is “not guaranteed”, a sentiment that has been echoed by the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (a group of independent economists that meet at the London-based Institute of Economic Affairs). This makes today’s report critical to shaping the market’s expectations of future of monetary policy: traders will likely be less sensitive to a print in line with or better than what is expected, as this would only reinforce themes that have already been priced into the exchange rage; conversely, a disappointing outcome could weigh heavily on sterling as traders readjust their exposure to reflect a likely expansion of quantitative easing.

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
Article Source - US Dollar Supported as Stocks Surge with Treasury Sales to Boost Yields (Euro Open)
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What is Forex?

If you would go out on a dinner with your friends or family and you mentioned that you were trading on the Forex market most of them wouldn’t know what you were talking about. The worst thing is that most of the Forex traders that join the Forex market don’t know what they are doing. Understanding what Forex is, is the first good step to your success at Forex trading.

The foreign exchange market (Currency, Forex, or FX) is where currency trading takes place. It is where banks and other official institutions facilitate the buying and selling of foreign currencies. Forex transactions typically involve one party purchasing a quantity of one currency in exchange for paying a quantity of another. The foreign exchange market that we see today started evolving during the 1970s when world over countries gradually switched to floating exchange rate from their erstwhile exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system till 1971.

Today, the Forex market is one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world, and includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, corporations, governments, and other institutions. The average daily volume in the global foreign exchange and related markets is continuously growing. Traditional daily turnover was reported to be over US$3.2 trillion in April 2007 by the Bank for International Settlements. Since then, the market has continued to grow. According to Euromoney's annual Forex Poll, volumes grew a further 41% between 2007 and 2008.

Forex Turnover

Forex Turnover
Main foreign exchange market turnover, 1988 - 2007, measured in billions of USD.
The purpose of Forex market is to facilitate trade and investment. The need for a foreign exchange market arises because of the presence of multifarious international currencies such as US Dollar, Pound Sterling, Yen, etc., and the need for trading in such currencies. Since you aren’t buying anything physical this kind of trading can be confusing. When buying a currency think of it as buying a part in that particular country’s economy because the currency rate reflects the economical situation of the country when compared to others.


List of most popular currencies on the Forex market

Forex used to be a closed market because only the “big boys” because you needed between 10 and 50 million $ to open an account. But today, with the development of internet, online Forex brokers have the possibility to offer their services to “little” traders. All you need to start is a computer, fast internet connection and information which you can find on this page also.

This enormous market is like the dangerous sea where you can meet lots of sharks and dangerous waters but at the same time it is the only one where two weeks of trading can hypothetically bring you $1,000,000 out of $1,000 of initial investment.

This is certainly hypothetically because a lot of newbie traders deal with their trades as gambling, that surely bring them to having nothing in the end. You should always keep the phrase "be careful!" in your mind. This market would give you its profit possibilities only if you learn the basic things hard and make lots of demo trading.

The statistics is that as much as 95% of traders come to losing their money at Forex, 5% have profit and less than 1% of traders make large fortune at Forex. You shouldn't produce, sell or advertise anything trading at Forex. Your assets are your knowledge, experience and a small amount of cash.

This market is a platform for banks, transnational corporations and individual traders to change the currencies they possess into other ones. This is the spot Forex market. At this market you can trade with up to 1:400 leverage which means that you'll get $400 on your account for each dollar invested. So, you can trade with the $400,000 sum having invested $1,000 onto your account.

Forex is unique among other world markets because in any time of day and night, somewhere in the world, a financial centre is open for business, banks and corporations exchange currency all the time, with a little lower frequency during the weekend.

Why to trade on Forex?

1. There is no commission fee for trading at Forex.
2. There is no intermediary, you can trade directly at Forex.
3. Forex is open 24-hours a day.
4. Nobody can influence the market for a longer period.
5. High liquidity.
6. Free demo accounts, analysis and charts.
7. Small accounts that allow everyone to try out his luck.

Hope this has answered a lot of questions you were asking yourself about Forex and that you can now start trading. Also make sure that you check out other articles on this blog which can help you earn your fortune.

Good luck to everyone!