Euro Weakness Against US Dollar to be Amplified as External Balance Sours (Euro Open)

Euro selling against the US Dollar may be amplified in the forthcoming session with February’s Euro Zone Current Account report expected to show a -18.8 billion euro decline in trading terms from a year before while the analogous US metric has been trending sharply higher.

Key Overnight Developments

• Australian Annual New Vehicle Sales Fall Most in 9 Years
• Euro Range-Bound, British Pound Lower Against US Dollar

Critical Levels

The Euro traded sideways overnight, oscillating above intraday support at 1.2986. The British Pound trended lower, slipping -0.2% against the greenback. Technical positioning favors a bearish outlook on both EURUSD and GBPUSD.

Asia Session Highlights

The economic calendar was notably tame in Asian trading hours. Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales fell for the third consecutive month to bring the annual pace of decline to -22.6% in the year to March, the biggest drop in nearly 9 years. The result reflects Australian consumers’ continued hesitation to commit to big-ticket purchases amid a deepening economic downturn that has pushed the unemployment rate to a 5-year high of 5.7%, weighing on disposable incomes and prompting cautionary saving. New Zealand’s consumption climate does not look much better: Credit Card Spending fell -5.0% in the year to March, the most since records began in December 1994.

The US Dollar was effectively unchanged heading into the opening bell in Europe as stock markets searched for direction in Asian trading. Financials put downward pressure on key indices on fears of disappointing earnings reports but automakers and consumer-related stocks offset losses.

Euro Session: What to Expect

February’s Euro Zone Current Account report is expected to show a -10.7 billion euro deficit, a narrower shortfall than the previous month’s -12.7 billion result. Setting aside month-to-month volatility, the expected result would amount to a -18.8 billion euro annual drop in trading terms as compared to a -6.5 billion decline in the year to January. Meanwhile, the analogous metric in the US has been trending sharply higher with the deficit narrowing at an annual pace of 20.5% in 2008. A widening external gap in the Euro area coupled with a contracting one across the Atlantic implies a net outflow of capital from the currency bloc and into the States, extending our medium-term expectations of EURUSD downside into the long-term outlook.

Switzerland’s Trade Balance report is likely to show the surplus is likely narrow in March as exports continue to trend lower. Outbound shipments shrank -1.2% in the year to February, the most since December 2004, as deepening recession grips Switzerland’s major trade partners, weighing on overseas demand. A bit of room for an upside surprise exists, however: the Swiss Franc fell -0.8% through March, which could both make Swiss goods more affordable to foreigners while making imports relatively more expensive for domestic buyers. In any case, the overall bias has favored the downside since exports snapped a 5-year uptrend in November.

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
Article Source - Euro Weakness Against US Dollar to be Amplified as External Balance Sours (Euro Open)
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What is Forex?

If you would go out on a dinner with your friends or family and you mentioned that you were trading on the Forex market most of them wouldn’t know what you were talking about. The worst thing is that most of the Forex traders that join the Forex market don’t know what they are doing. Understanding what Forex is, is the first good step to your success at Forex trading.

The foreign exchange market (Currency, Forex, or FX) is where currency trading takes place. It is where banks and other official institutions facilitate the buying and selling of foreign currencies. Forex transactions typically involve one party purchasing a quantity of one currency in exchange for paying a quantity of another. The foreign exchange market that we see today started evolving during the 1970s when world over countries gradually switched to floating exchange rate from their erstwhile exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system till 1971.

Today, the Forex market is one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world, and includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, corporations, governments, and other institutions. The average daily volume in the global foreign exchange and related markets is continuously growing. Traditional daily turnover was reported to be over US$3.2 trillion in April 2007 by the Bank for International Settlements. Since then, the market has continued to grow. According to Euromoney's annual Forex Poll, volumes grew a further 41% between 2007 and 2008.

Forex Turnover

Forex Turnover
Main foreign exchange market turnover, 1988 - 2007, measured in billions of USD.
The purpose of Forex market is to facilitate trade and investment. The need for a foreign exchange market arises because of the presence of multifarious international currencies such as US Dollar, Pound Sterling, Yen, etc., and the need for trading in such currencies. Since you aren’t buying anything physical this kind of trading can be confusing. When buying a currency think of it as buying a part in that particular country’s economy because the currency rate reflects the economical situation of the country when compared to others.


List of most popular currencies on the Forex market

Forex used to be a closed market because only the “big boys” because you needed between 10 and 50 million $ to open an account. But today, with the development of internet, online Forex brokers have the possibility to offer their services to “little” traders. All you need to start is a computer, fast internet connection and information which you can find on this page also.

This enormous market is like the dangerous sea where you can meet lots of sharks and dangerous waters but at the same time it is the only one where two weeks of trading can hypothetically bring you $1,000,000 out of $1,000 of initial investment.

This is certainly hypothetically because a lot of newbie traders deal with their trades as gambling, that surely bring them to having nothing in the end. You should always keep the phrase "be careful!" in your mind. This market would give you its profit possibilities only if you learn the basic things hard and make lots of demo trading.

The statistics is that as much as 95% of traders come to losing their money at Forex, 5% have profit and less than 1% of traders make large fortune at Forex. You shouldn't produce, sell or advertise anything trading at Forex. Your assets are your knowledge, experience and a small amount of cash.

This market is a platform for banks, transnational corporations and individual traders to change the currencies they possess into other ones. This is the spot Forex market. At this market you can trade with up to 1:400 leverage which means that you'll get $400 on your account for each dollar invested. So, you can trade with the $400,000 sum having invested $1,000 onto your account.

Forex is unique among other world markets because in any time of day and night, somewhere in the world, a financial centre is open for business, banks and corporations exchange currency all the time, with a little lower frequency during the weekend.

Why to trade on Forex?

1. There is no commission fee for trading at Forex.
2. There is no intermediary, you can trade directly at Forex.
3. Forex is open 24-hours a day.
4. Nobody can influence the market for a longer period.
5. High liquidity.
6. Free demo accounts, analysis and charts.
7. Small accounts that allow everyone to try out his luck.

Hope this has answered a lot of questions you were asking yourself about Forex and that you can now start trading. Also make sure that you check out other articles on this blog which can help you earn your fortune.

Good luck to everyone!