4.07.2009

Equity Losses Benefit the Dollar

The euphoria of last month's equity rally has finally worn off and the Dollar is the primary beneficiary in these market conditions. The Dollar tends to rise as equity markets weaken with reducing risk taking in the currency markets.



USD - Dollar Rises as Risk Taking Disappears

Yesterday a drop in equities signaled an end to the higher risk taking environment and helped to strengthen the Dollar against the EUR and the GBP. The Dollar also rose to a 5-month high against the Japanese Yen to close above the significant 100 Yen mark. The Dollar tends to rise as equity markets weaken, reducing risk taking in the financial markets. On Monday the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished lower by 0.5% and at the end of the day the EUR/USD was at $1.3373 from 1.3572. The GBP/USD was at1.4681 from 1.4927, while the USD/JPY slid 0.4% to 100.53 Yen.

The announcement by the Federal Reserve that it has initiated new currency swap agreements with the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of Japan did not significantly impact the currency valuations yesterday. The move was seen as a step by the Fed to ease liquidity concerns for foreign national investors who purchase U.S. government bonds. The main driver yesterday in the forex market was the drop in U.S. equities.

Trading of the Dollar this week could continue to track equity markets as last month's rally may have been a bit premature. Global market sentiment was riding high but yesterday's trading atmosphere may have brought the reality of the economic situation back to earth. There have been very few economic indicators painting a different economic picture. Until there are, the EUR/USD may continue to fall towards its next support level of 1.3250.

EUR - Pound Continues its Bullish Trend

The Euro-Zone economy continues to show signs of weakness and yesterday was no exception. European retail sales fell more than twice the forecasted value as the economic situation continues to worsen. This was the largest yearly drop since the record has been tracked. Further erosion was seen in an investor confidence survey; though this result was slightly better than expected. The data highlights a European economy that has not shown signs of improvement.

This scenario has been apparent in the trading of the EUR/GBP. The Pound has jumped 4% on the EUR in the past 18 days. The trend has extended its gains as better than expected economic data has been seen from Britain the past week. Perhaps the Bank of England was successful in lowering their benchmark rate to 0%, well ahead of the European Central Bank's strategy which has entailed a measured pace to reduce European Interest Rates.

Today's trading of the EUR crosses may be influenced by the release of monthly manufacturing production data from Britain. Manufacturing makes up almost 80% of the industrial production in Britain. Therefore this release is treated as a leading indicator. If the reading comes in better than the 1.4% contraction forecasted for the previous month, look for the EUR/GBP to continue its decline to the 0.9050 mark.

JPY - Yen Hits a 5-Month Low against the Dollar

The Yen continued its decline against the Dollar, touching on a 5-month low during yesterday's trading. After the USD/JPY struck the 101.42 level the pair immediately reversed course. During early morning hours of the Japanese trading session the pair was still declining near the 100.50 mark. The recent decline of the Yen was due to a significantly distressed Japanese economy and a rally of global equity markets this past month.

The appreciation of the Yen seen early this morning may depend on the outcome of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) press conference later today and the performance of global equity markets. A bullish statement from the BoJ could lead some traders to believe the BoJ is forecasting a rosier financial climate in Japan. Also a continuation of losses in global equity markets could increase the appetite for the Japanese Yen. If this happens, look for the Yen to trade near the 100.25 level.

OIL - Crude Drops Sharply on Equity Losses and a Strong Dollar

The price of Crude Oil fell sharply yesterday as a strong Dollar and weaker equity markets dampened investor's sentiment. Crude largely tracked U.S. equity markets which were sent lower on worries in the banking sector and overall market attitudes. This was the case with the previous month when Oil prices rose, tracking the rise of global stock markets.

These rallies and drops in the price of Crude present a terrific opportunity for traders to take advantage of market volatility. As the commodity follows the tone set in other financial markets, gains can be made by taking positions in the same direction of the U.S. equity markets. If the trend continues today with further losses in the Dow Jones, Crude could finish the trading day at $50.

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What is Forex?

If you would go out on a dinner with your friends or family and you mentioned that you were trading on the Forex market most of them wouldn’t know what you were talking about. The worst thing is that most of the Forex traders that join the Forex market don’t know what they are doing. Understanding what Forex is, is the first good step to your success at Forex trading.


The foreign exchange market (Currency, Forex, or FX) is where currency trading takes place. It is where banks and other official institutions facilitate the buying and selling of foreign currencies. Forex transactions typically involve one party purchasing a quantity of one currency in exchange for paying a quantity of another. The foreign exchange market that we see today started evolving during the 1970s when world over countries gradually switched to floating exchange rate from their erstwhile exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system till 1971.

Today, the Forex market is one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world, and includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, corporations, governments, and other institutions. The average daily volume in the global foreign exchange and related markets is continuously growing. Traditional daily turnover was reported to be over US$3.2 trillion in April 2007 by the Bank for International Settlements. Since then, the market has continued to grow. According to Euromoney's annual Forex Poll, volumes grew a further 41% between 2007 and 2008.

Forex Turnover

Forex Turnover
Main foreign exchange market turnover, 1988 - 2007, measured in billions of USD.
The purpose of Forex market is to facilitate trade and investment. The need for a foreign exchange market arises because of the presence of multifarious international currencies such as US Dollar, Pound Sterling, Yen, etc., and the need for trading in such currencies. Since you aren’t buying anything physical this kind of trading can be confusing. When buying a currency think of it as buying a part in that particular country’s economy because the currency rate reflects the economical situation of the country when compared to others.

Currencies

Currencies
List of most popular currencies on the Forex market

Forex used to be a closed market because only the “big boys” because you needed between 10 and 50 million $ to open an account. But today, with the development of internet, online Forex brokers have the possibility to offer their services to “little” traders. All you need to start is a computer, fast internet connection and information which you can find on this page also.

This enormous market is like the dangerous sea where you can meet lots of sharks and dangerous waters but at the same time it is the only one where two weeks of trading can hypothetically bring you $1,000,000 out of $1,000 of initial investment.

This is certainly hypothetically because a lot of newbie traders deal with their trades as gambling, that surely bring them to having nothing in the end. You should always keep the phrase "be careful!" in your mind. This market would give you its profit possibilities only if you learn the basic things hard and make lots of demo trading.

The statistics is that as much as 95% of traders come to losing their money at Forex, 5% have profit and less than 1% of traders make large fortune at Forex. You shouldn't produce, sell or advertise anything trading at Forex. Your assets are your knowledge, experience and a small amount of cash.

This market is a platform for banks, transnational corporations and individual traders to change the currencies they possess into other ones. This is the spot Forex market. At this market you can trade with up to 1:400 leverage which means that you'll get $400 on your account for each dollar invested. So, you can trade with the $400,000 sum having invested $1,000 onto your account.

Forex is unique among other world markets because in any time of day and night, somewhere in the world, a financial centre is open for business, banks and corporations exchange currency all the time, with a little lower frequency during the weekend.

Why to trade on Forex?

1. There is no commission fee for trading at Forex.
2. There is no intermediary, you can trade directly at Forex.
3. Forex is open 24-hours a day.
4. Nobody can influence the market for a longer period.
5. High liquidity.
6. Free demo accounts, analysis and charts.
7. Small accounts that allow everyone to try out his luck.

Hope this has answered a lot of questions you were asking yourself about Forex and that you can now start trading. Also make sure that you check out other articles on this blog which can help you earn your fortune.

Good luck to everyone!